This is a lot of points to lay for an opening game on the road (like that matters this year) against a pretty respectable defense. But I would do it anyway. Alabama is out for blood and Mizzou’s ineffective offense could mean a lot of 3 and outs. Alabama still has big playmakers at receiver and has a nasty running game. If the Tiger defense gets worn down, Bama could run it up — and you know Nick Saban will have his team prepared.

The pick: Alabama wins, covers

I am not sold on Auburn at all. I think they lost a lot from last year's team and that is being overlooked. Bo Nix has been inconsistent. Kentucky has a solid defense and can slow down opponents. But I'm even less sold on Terry Wilson, who may have been the worst SEC QB I've seen in person when Kentucky played at A&M in 2018. Maybe he's better two years on, but he has to prove that. I think this game will be low scoring and I'm tempted to take Kentucky outright, but I'll just go with a cover.

The pick: Auburn wins, Kentucky covers

So what is Lane Kiffin cooking up in Oxford? That's a big question. But here's what we know: a new offense is being put in with pieces that may not necessarily fit, and they've had no real opportunity to try it out before facing one of the nation's best defenses in 2019. On the other hand, Florida is running the same system with the same QB -- Kyle Trask -- against the nation's 120th-ranked pass defense from last year. There's plenty of intrigue with Ole Miss, but I don't think they're going to come out of the gates 100% ready to compete. So I'm taking Florida and, if you're interested, the over/under is 56.5, and I'm thinking under.

The pick: Florida wins, covers and take the under

I guess I have more faith than most people in Mike Leach, because I think State can cover this number. I don't think they'll win, but you have a new system (which could backfire, admittedly) against a team that has talent, but is also breaking in a whole lot of new starters.

A. Whole. Lot.

Mississippi State isn't going to be good this year, but they'll probably shoot it out with a few teams. Unless LSU has their sea legs under them immediately, then this could be one of those games.

The pick: LSU wins, Mississippi State covers

Georgia has a lot of issues on offense. They’re breaking in a new quarterback and four new offensive linemen. But they have George Pickens and a strong running game and Arkansas’ defense is probably not going to be very good.

But here’s the big thing in this one: Georgia’s defense is tough, one of the nation’s best. Felipe Franks has weapons at receiver and has Rakeem Boyd behind him, but the offensive line isn’t good. That could lead to short drives, turnovers and Georgia working with short fields and momentum.

The pick: Georgia wins, covers

This is the closest spread of the SEC games this weekend and could be interesting, if low-scoring. Tennessee should control the line of scrimmage with their offensive line against South Carolina’s weak front, so they can run. But can they throw? Can Tennessee get after Collin Hill? South Carolina is using a new scheme under Mike Bobo, but it’s not new to Hill — he operated it at Colorado State. But it’s still new to Tennessee. Another factor: COVID ran rampant through the Vols camp, costing them nearly a week of practice. Could that be enough to tip things in Carolina's favor? Maybe, but I'm not counting on it. Tennessee wins a close one, but "close" is outside the spread.

The pick: Tennessee wins, covers

Here's all you need to know: Tech gave up 567 yards passing and beat Houston Baptist 38-35 two weeks ago. Houston Baptist was then skunked by North Texas by 26. That's bad.

Sam Ehlinger threw for 425 yards and 5 TDs in a half against very bad UTEP. That's even worse if you're Tech. Texas may not be (probably isn't) all that, but Tech is atrocious on defense. Considering Matt Wells was brought in in large part due to his defensive prowess, that's a great reason for a very short tenure in Lubbock.

The pick: Texas wins, covers

Louisville's secondary got absolutely torched by Miami last weekend. It wasn't bad coverage or missed tackles; it was completely blown assignments that left Miami receivers running free most of the time. It was inept. Mental mistakes can be rectified, but they don't seem very talented either. Pitt's Kenny Pickett is completing 70% of his passes. Go with the home guys.

The pick: Pitt wins, covers

I've seen a lot of people saying Iowa State will bounce back this week after getting skunked at home by Louisiana.

But that stance ignores that they were skunked at home by Louisiana. Brock Purdy is a guy I really like and thought would have a great year, but he looked lost against the Ragin' Cajuns. Now, he gets a TCU defense which should be decent by Big 12 standards. I don't expect either team to score a lot, but Iowa State will have to show a lot more than they did two weeks ago to win.

The pick: TCU wins outright

Is "The U" back? Highly unlikely. They're going to run into some buzzsaws before this is all said and done and 12 may be as high as they go.

But is FSU back? That's a resounding NO. They got beaten up by, and only scored 13 points against, a Georgia Tech team that turned around and gave up 48 to UCF. They're not good in any facet of the game. Miami, on the other hand, has shown they can beat up subpar defenses. D'Erick King lit up Louisville last weekend and will probably do the same to the Seminoles this weekend. I don't think this one will be close at all.

The pick: Miami wins, covers