Published Oct 16, 2020
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Mark Passwaters  •  AggieYell
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@mbpRivals

It's a very interesting week when it comes to matchups, so let's take a look at a few and discuss where we'd put our (mythical) money, shall we?

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No. 3 Georgia (+4.5) at No. 2 Alabama

This isn't just the game of the week, it's probably the regular season game of the year. Realistically, this is a warmup for Atlanta in mid-December; the only teams in the way are A&M (for Alabama, and they need help) and Florida (for Georgia).

Alabama has blown apart every defense it's faced so far, but Georgia has been really tough. They held Tennessee to -1 yard rushing last weekend and were vicious with their pass rush. But Alabama isn't Tennessee, and Mac Jones isn't Jarrett Guarantano. Alabama isn't going to be able to run much, but Najee Harris will do enough to keep things balanced.

Alabama's defense hasn't been nearly as good as anticipated, but they're going to come after Stetson Bennett. Georgia's receivers have also been a bit of a letdown, so this could be a difference-maker. If Nick Saban is back on the sidelines, which somehow is possible, then that could be a bit of an extra boost for the Tide.

I really like Georgia's chances here and almost picked them, but Alabama still has a fantastic offense that can carry the day. I think this game will be close, but Bama does cover.

The pick: Alabama wins, covers


No. 15 Auburn (-3.5) at South Carolina

Forgive me for being blunt here, but Auburn hasn't played good football all year and should be 1-2. If it weren't for incompetent officiating, they would be. Both of these teams have weaknesses that mirror one another, and most of them are on offense. Bo Nix has the worst completion percentage of any SEC starting quarterback and what was supposed to become a wide open offense has been stale and repetitive. South Carolina gives up sacks left and right, leaving Collin Hill to take a beating.

But here's the thing: South Carolina has shown the ability to run and throw when its offensive line isn't getting brutalized. Auburn has shown they can run and throw to Anthony Schwartz. That's it. Add in the fact that Nix performs significantly worse on the road than at home and the keys to the upset are there. So take them and drive.

The pick: South Carolina wins outright

Kentucky (+6) at No. 18 Tennessee

This is another one where you can see an upset. Kentucky picked off Mississippi State quarterbacks six times last weekend and, as soon as Gary Danielson said Guarantano doesn't turn the ball over -- especially doesn't throw interceptions -- the Vols QB became a turnover machine against Georgia. The Dawgs obliterated Tennessee's offense after halftime, which could have a hangover effect -- and Kentucky's defense is pretty solid. But can the Wildcats move the ball? That's the big question in this one. Terry Wilson is just flat terrible as a passer, so the Vols will stack the box and make him throw. I don't think either team runs away and hides in this one, but Tennessee should have the juice to squeak out the W.

The pick: Tennessee wins, Kentucky covers

Ole Miss (-1.5) at Arkansas

Is there a more exciting matchup between 1-2 teams anywhere? Unlikely. This game could definitely be a shootout. Remember, Ole Miss is second nationally in total offense and dead-a**-last in total defense. They're so bad 1940 France looks at them and goes, "DAMN!" But that offense...

Arkansas, on the other hand, is much improved on defense and, really, on offense. But the offense is still pedestrian. They're 65th in total offense and 68th in scoring offense. They'll look at lot better than that Saturday. Ole Miss has to get a stop eventually. Right?

I mean, seriously. Right?

The pick: Ole Miss wins, covers

No. 14 BYU (-5) at Houston

I'll take the Cougars in this one.

Oh, wait, they're both Cougars? Crap.

Ok, let's look at this more seriously. The visiting Coogs are averaging 44 points a game, well over 500 yards of offense and have been fairly stingy on defense in pushing out to a 4-0 record.

The home Coogs have played one game, are really still trying to get their feet wet and scored 49 against Tulane in their opener. They also turned the ball over three times in the first quarter and gave up 31 points.

BYU really is multi-dimensional and may be the best team outside the Power 5 this year. UH is still trying to figure out exactly what it has in 2020.

The pick: BYU wins, covers

No. 5 North Carolina (-13.5) at FSU

Florida State's folks were encouraged by their performance last weekend against Notre Dame. They lost 42-26 and the game was over by halftime. If that's encouragement, you'd hate to see disappointment.

UNC has been really good on offense, averaging right at 500 yards a game and a nearly even split between rushing and passing yards. FSU's offense...let's just say it's not nearly as good. And, even though UNC's defense has been average to below, it should be more than sufficient to slow down FSU's offense. Can FSU say the same when the roles are reversed? Unlikely.

This would be a big opportunity for FSU to show some fight and prove to the nation that they're not giving up on 2020 easily in a night game with a national audience. The problem is that FSU hasn't shown any fight since Jimbo Fisher left. Why would they start now?

The pick: UNC wins, covers

Louisville (+17) at No. 4 Notre Dame

Louisville has given up 47 points to Miami and 46 points to Georgia Tech. Miami's pretty good; Tech is still learning a new offense.

Notre Dame scored 42 in a half against a defense that held Georgia Tech to 16 points.

That's not comparing apples to apples, but Louisville's secondary was among the worst I've seen all year in the Miami game. Notre Dame can probably exploit that, even if their passing game has just been average. Bad defenses look average offenses look good, and there's sufficient evidence that Louisville's defense is bad.

The pick: Notre Dame wins, covers