Here's our latest betting primer arrives with a look at games in the SEC and some of the big ones from around the country.
No. 8 Florida (+3.5) at No. 5 Georgia (in Jacksonville, Fla.)
This is the game of the week by far and it's also one of the toughest ones to really wrap your head around. Georgia has a great defense (16th in the country in scoring defense), while Florida's has been bad until this past weekend. But the Dawgs are really banged up on defense and Stetson Bennett IV has played pretty poorly for several games in a row now. Georgia only managed 14 points against Kentucky last weekend, while Florida's defense shut out Missouri (Mizzou's score came on a pick-six).
Enter Kyle Trask.
We saw what Trask is capable of when he came to College Station and lit it up, even if it wasn't enough to win. The former Manvel QB is completing 68% of his passes for 18 TD and just 2 INT. With Georgia's troubles moving the football and all the injuries they have on defense, I get the sense A&M's CFP prospects could well get a boost.
The pick: Florida wins outright
Tennessee (-2) at Arkansas
This is the Fraud Bowl. One of these two teams is going to walk out of the stadium Saturday night knowing that they're just smoke and mirrors. That would still be an improvement above expectations for Arkansas, but devastating for a Tennessee program that came into the season ranked in the top 20 and had an eight-game winning streak.
Even though Arkansas was toast by the middle of the third quarter against A&M, that shouldn't cause them to lose confidence. They hit on a few things, including the extremely high tempo and using Felipe Franks in the running game. I'm not sure I'd go up-tempo in this one, but the running game could be what the doctor ordered.
Here's why I wouldn't go up-tempo: Tennessee is utterly inept on offense. They are 95 in total offense, 88th in passing offense and 106th in third down conversions. Even though the Aggies ate Arkansas alive on third down last weekend, the Razorbacks are still in the nation's top half in third down defense (42nd nationally). If the Hogs can get off the field, and then run, then Tennessee is in trouble.
Here's another thing in Arkansas' favor: their ability to force turnovers. A&M avoided that last weekend, Kellen Mond chewed them up and A&M scored six straight touchdowns; Jarrett Guarantano is not Mond. He's liable to be impatient, make mistakes and turn the ball over.
The pick: Arkansas wins outright
Vanderbilt (+19) at Mississippi State
Here it is! The worst game of the year. This is it. The toilet bowl. So who takes it?
19 is a very large line for a team that hasn't scored 19 total in its last three games. But Vandy is absolutely devastated by injuries, suspensions and opt-outs. As crappy as Mississippi State's offense has been, Vandy's has been even worse. The real difference here is on the defensive side of the ball: Vandy is ranked in the 100s while Mississippi State is 24th. And that's after being bludgeoned by Alabama last weekend. There's no question the Bulldogs are playing like hot garbage, but the Dores are playing like cold garbage. Even though I hate the line, the more I think about it I think Mississippi State can cover it -- especially if K.J. Costello doesn't play.
The pick: Mississippi State wins, covers
No. 1 Clemson (-5) at No. 4 Notre Dame
jkn Here's another game A&M fans will have a real interest in. The Tigers had a huge gut-check last weekend, when they were down 18 points at home (the biggest deficit for a number one team in 70 years), but they came back and won anyway. Boston College had all kinds of weird stuff bounce their way and Clemson still managed to pull it off.
This is the Super Bowl for both teams. And both look really good on paper. The biggest issue could be Notre Dame's passing attack. The Domers are 12th nationally in rushing yards, but Clemson is giving up less than 100 yards a game on the ground. Ian Book and the passing game, though...they're 72nd. Clemson's pass defense? 13th. If Clemson slows down the run of Notre Dame, then the Irish have a problem.
I don't think this game is going to be a real shootout. But I do think Clemson remains unbeaten in spite of a number of big obstacles.
The pick: Clemson wins, Notre Dame covers
West Virginia (+5.5) at No. 22 TexasÂ
Yes, Texas beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater last weekend. But the Cowboys gave them that game via turnovers, and what had been a rather blah Oklahoma State offense put up huge numbers against Texas.
West Virginia, on the other hand, trashed K-State's defense in a 37-10 blowout last weekend.
Here are some things you may not realize, because I didn't: West Virginia has the nation's #4 overall defense, the #22 offense and the #25 passing offense. They're also fourth in the nation in interceptions with 9. Texas is 92nd against the pass.
WVU doesn't have to stop Sam Ehlinger. They need to slow him down, because let's face it, he is the offense for Texas this year. The biggest thing the Mountaineers need to do is realize they can replicate their home success on the road. Toss in a turnover or two or a stupid penalty of five from Texas (112th out of 115th in the nation in penalties) and WVU can get what they need.
And if you need any other reasoning, think about this: when was the last time Tom Herman got his team up for two straight big games?
The pick: WVU wins outright
Michigan (-3.5) at No. 18 Indiana
After the egg Michigan laid against Michigan State, it would be easy to sit here and assume Indiana will walk away with this one. As much as I would love to see that, this could actually be a job-keeping game for Jim Harbaugh. Ohio State is still out there, and a 4-4 season will make no friends for Coach Dockers. And, there is a certain element of luck Indiana has enjoyed in its first two wins. I think that runs out Saturday.
The pick: Michigan wins, covers