AggieYell.com's weekly betting primer (or, what not to do) is back! We'll have 5 games in the SEC and 5 big games from other conferences. Last year, we did...really, I don't know, but well straight up and about .500 against the spread. So let's try to make some money!
5 from the SEC
No. 1 Alabama (-19.5) vs. No. 14 Miami (in Atlanta)
The Crimson Tide are in the middle of another reloading, with Bryce Young taking over at quarterback. The last time Miami played a meaningful game was at home against North Carolina last year and they gave up 554 rushing yards (and 778 total).
Yes, it is a new year and many things have changed. But here's Alabama's front line: 350, 305, 305, 324 and 298. 298?!? GET THAT GUY OUTTA HERE!
In any case, Alabama is going to want to run. A lot. And Miami remains ill-equipped to deal with it. 19.5 is a lot to give, but it's Alabama exploiting a glaring weakness here.
The pick: Alabama wins, covers
No. 3 Georgia (+3) vs. No. 5 Clemson (in Charlotte, N.C.)
This is THE game of the weekend and a tough one to call. But Clemson has everyone in place for D.J. Uiagalelei, while J.T. Daniels is missing several big targets, including Arik Gilbert and George Pickens. The UGA receivers are very inexperienced, and that may be the difference in the game.
I don't know if either side will be able to run that much, and that could be more of an issue for the Bulldogs. I liked what I saw out of Uiagalelei last season, and having the better stable of wideouts makes me lean Clemson's way.
The pick: Clemson wins, covers
No. 16 LSU (-2.5) at UCLA
The last time a team had a major storm affect their region and then started against UCLA, they blew a huge lead and lost. That's all I'll say about that.
So LSU is going to lose, right? I don't know about that. This is a game where a more talented team hasn't played, but the less talented team has a game (and win) under their belt. UCLA has a solid pass rush and has improved defensively.
Now let's get to it: it's still LSU and still UCLA. UCLA did not throw the ball well against Hawaii (130 yards) and they won 44-10. LSU is going to stack the box to stuff the run and force UCLA to throw. I don't think they can do it enough.
I'll be honest, though: this game gave me heartburn. I could see it going UCLA's way.
The pick: LSU wins, covers
Louisiana Tech (+23) at Mississippi State
That's a large line to give for a team that was pretty terrible last year, especially once their offensive scheme was figured out (as in, week 2). They should be better, but they've got a lot of new faces and there's still a learning curve. Louisiana Tech, on the other hand, returns 10 starters on defense and 18 overall.
I don't think Tech can win, because State's defense is pretty good. But keep it within 3 touchdowns? Yeah, that I think can happen.
The pick: Mississippi State wins, Louisiana Tech covers
Louisville (+10) vs. Ole Miss (in Atlanta)
Ole Miss is going to score a lot of points. But Louisville probably will too, unless the Rebels found a defense over the offseason (doubtful). But Louisville was really turnover-prone last year, and a continuation of that could be deadly in this one. I like Ole Miss here.
The pick: Ole Miss wins, covers
5 from elsewhere
No. 23 Louisiana (+8) vs. No. 21 Texas
So the Steve Sarkisian era begins in Austin with a new scheme and plans to play two quarterbacks. They're breaking in two new coordinators and need to find replacements at some key positions (especially to replace Joseph Ossai).
Texas is more talented, but still trying to get their feet wet in their new schemes. Louisiana-Lafayette returns 20 starters, including their entire secondary from last year. They were only average against the run, so they're going to have to stack the box to stop Bijan Robinson and see if they can force Hudson Card into making some mistakes.
This is a bad game to start with for a team in transition. If they played in week 10, Texas may but a beating on them. But they don't.
The pick: Louisiana wins outright
#17 Indiana (+4) at #18 Iowa
This is a tough one. Indiana made a lot of fans last year, but were they a flash in the pan? Iowa is going to come out be big, physical and try to run the ball a lot. Nothing flash, just grind it out. It may be a game of keep-away, but Iowa may have just enough to do it.
The pick: Iowa wins, Indiana covers
San Jose State (+14) at No. 15 USC
It's the Starkel bowl! Former A&M quarterback Nick Starkel enters his 42nd collegiate season and is playing better than ever. In fact, he's got the Spartans offense clicking at a level they may have never seen. But it's still the Coliseum and USC. Starkel shouldn't be scared -- he played in Death Valley with A&M -- but it may intimidate some of his teammates. I think he's going to put up big numbers and annoy the dickens out of USC, but the Trojans still win.
The pick: USC wins, covers
#19 Penn State (+5.5) at #12 Wisconsin
Every year, it's the same deal: PENN STATE IS BACK! And then they're not. They're a more successful Texas of the northeast. Here's their latest chance to show they're turning it all around and becoming a powerhouse again, and they've got a slugfest on their hands in Madison.
Here's the big matchup: Penn State's offensive line against Wisconsin's defensive front seven. Penn State QB Sean Clifford was sacked 22 times in 9 games last year -- for comparison, Kellen Mond was sacked 7 times in 10 games. Wisconsin has one of the better defensive fronts in the Big 10. If they can cause problems for Clifford, then it's advantage Badgers.
The pick: Wisconsin wins, covers
#9 Notre Dame (-7.5) at Florida State
Notre Dame lost a lot from their alleged playoff team last year, including QB Ian Book. But they were capable of reloading fairly well and, well, FSU still absolutely stinks on defense. If the Irish can go out and run their offense at a halfway capable level, they're going to put up points.
The pick: Notre Dame wins, covers