It's back! For the third season, AY's betting primer is ready to win you money (or lose it -- remember, this is for fun). But hey, one way or the other, our hit rate has been better than cryptocurrency. So let's go!
No. 1 Alabama (-20) at Texas
Let's start with the big game of the day, shall we? Alabama is coming off its most dominant opening day win of the Nick Saban era, routing Utah State 55-0. Bryce Young not only threw the ball over the place, he ran for more than 100 yards. Will Anderson was everywhere and the Alabama defense was suffocating.
Texas walloped ULM 52-3, but the overall play of QB Quinn Ewers has to be cause for concern. He completed 2/3 of his passes, but the overwhelming majority were either quick passes at the line of scrimmage or very short routes. Stud WR Xavier Worthy had 2 catches for 24 yards, and Ewers didn't show any ability to push the ball down the field. Short routes aren't going to do it against an Alabama defense that has tremendous speed.
In A&M's win last October, the Aggies pushed the ball down the field in the passing game, didn't give up a sack and sacked Young four times. Texas couldn't push the ball down the field against a terrible ULM team and their ability to protect the quarterback remains an issue. Odds are they won't be getting to Young much today.
Texas may come out with a lot of energy and fire, seeking the upset. But Alabama's got too much on both sides of the ball and is looking to send a message.
The pick: Alabama wins, covers
South Carolina (+9) at No. 16 Arkansas
Before the season started last week, I picked South Carolina as a surprise team in the SEC this year. That may have been...premature. They beat Georgia State last week, but needed two blocked punts to do it. Their offensive line, which has been bad, remains so. USC only had 71 yards rushing last week at home. Now they're going on the road against an Arkansas team that, while I'm not sold on it, out-punched Cincinnati last weekend. Sometimes, the glaring issues are enough to tip a game, and South Carolina's are enough for me.
The pick: Arkansas wins, covers
No. 20 Kentucky (+6) vs. No. 12 Florida
Here's the big problem for Kentucky: Chris Rodriguez is not playing today, and the running game has vanished in his absence. The Wildcats had 50 yards rushing last week -- against Miami of Ohio.
Uh oh.
Florida QB Anthony Richardson more than doubled that on his own against then No. 7 Utah -- on 11 carries.
Uh oh.
if you're going on the road and playing against a quarterback who's hot, you want to keep the ball out of his hands as much as possible. I'm not sure Kentucky can do that.
Still, I'm not totally sold on Richardson yet, and I think Florida can definitely cause problems for Kentucky if their offense remains one-dimensional. A lot of people think this could be a shootout, but I'm thinking that's discounting Kentucky's defense. I think this could be more of a slog.
The over/under number is 52, and I'm not sure they're gonna get there. Both teams can play a little defense, too.
The pick: Florida wins, covers and take the under
No. 24 Tennessee (-6) at No. 17 Pitt
Last year, Pitt won this game in a shootout at Knoxville, and odds are it'll be a similar kind of game today. The Vols have a great offense, and their defense really hasn't had to do much so far as they played Ball State. Pitt, on the other hand, is coming off a very tough Backyard Brawl with West Virginia.
There are signs to take Pitt here: Tennessee gave up 343 yards of total offense to Ball State, and the defense just isn't very good. But the offense is, and I think it's good enough that they can shoot it out and survive at Pitt. The over is 62.5, and they could easily go and repeat last years 41-34 track meet.
The pick: Tennessee wins, covers, and take the over
Iowa State (-3.5) at Iowa
Iowa State put up 42 points last week on Southeast Missouri. Meh.
Iowa put up...7...against South Dakota State. That's more than meh, that's just flat-out terrible.
Also, the seven was a field goal and two safeties.
This game sets up to be an absolute slog, with neither team doing a whole lot offensively. If someone gets to 17 points, that may be enough to win this thing. And, based on Iowa's complete offensive ineptitude last week, I think the Cyclones are more likely to do that.
The under is a ridiculously low 39.5. And I'll bet they won't reach it.
The pick: Iowa State wins, and take the under