USC vs. LSU (-4.5) (in Las Vegas)

This game is being played Sunday, assuming LSU fans don’t burn Vegas down in the meantime. These two teams are breaking in new quarterbacks, with Mason Miller taking over for Caleb Williams and Garrett Nussmeier replacing Jayden Daniels. Both teams have weapons on offense.

But USC, until further notice, has a defense that stinks.

They weren’t in the top 50. They weren’t in the top 100 in total defense.

They were 121st out of 133 teams. Examples of teams behind them: Kent State, Southern Miss, Temple, North Texas and Mass.

USC has improved via the portal, but LSU’s offensive line should be able to handle them. That line, against USC’s defensive front, is the biggest mismatch in the game and should allow the Tigers to run and for Nussmeier to have time to throw.

LSU could have issues when the SEC schedule gets here, but this isn’t the SEC.

The pick: LSU wins and covers

Clemson vs. Georgia (-11.5) (in Atlanta)

Another alleged “neutral site” game for Georgia, whose fans will likely outnumber Clemson’s 80-20. The Dawgs lost some dudes in the offseason, and replaced them with…more dudes. Top to bottom, they remain the most talented team in college football. Beatable, but with more elite talent than anyone else. Clemson, on the other hand, added nobody in the portal, so they’ll essentially be the same as they were last year (minus 12 transfers, some key, and guys they lost to the draft).

Clemson was 50th in total offense last year under Garrett Riley, as Dabo Swinney wouldn’t alter his scheme (sound familiar?) and 125th in yards per catch. And now you’re going against Georgia’s defense. Oh, and Carson Beck is back on the other side of the ball as Heisman frontrunner.

The pick: Georgia wins and covers

Penn State (-7.5) at West Virginia

Last year, Penn State was 53rd in total offense and 77th in passing offense. That was enough for a change, and talented playcaller Andy Kotelnicki came over from Kansas. But talent-wise, they may have gone backward. WVU, on the other hand, just pounded away at people all season, ranking third nationally in the running game. They’re a middle of the pack Big 12 team, it appears, but they’re on the upswing under Neal Brown. I don’t think they can win this one, but I do think they can run enough clock to make this one close and ugly.

The pick: Penn State wins, WVU covers

Miami (-2.5) at Florida

A lot of people have been wondering why people are so down on Florida — outside of the insane schedule. A few reasons: they couldn’t run, they couldn’t stop the run, and they gave up a ton of sacks. And then they lost 24 players to the portal. I’m not really sold on Miami overall, but I am a very big fan of their new quarterback, Cam Ward. He threw 47 touchdowns at Incarnate Word (!) In 2021, then tore it up at Washington State before transferring to Miami this year. I think they have enough at receiver to cause trouble for Florida.

I would tell people to stay away from this one, but watch it to see what kind of changes Florida has made and what kind of problems they may pose for A&M in a couple of weeks. But, since I brought it up…

The pick: Miami wins, covers