Arkansas (+7.5) at No. 17 Oklahoma State

Arkansas was terrible on both sides of the ball last year. They erupted for 70 points against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but APB may be the worst team in college football at any level. I’m not joking. Look them up.

Oklahoma State was terrible on defense last year and they started off poorly this year, giving up 388 yards and 20 points to FCS South Dakota State. Now, SDSU is at the different end of the FCS spectrum from APB, but that should not be happening. Arkansas could hit them over the top a lot in this one.

Still, it’s in Stillwater, where Oklahoma State is 28-5 in their last 33, spanning five seasons. Ollie Gordon still suits up for the Cowboys. I still don’t think Arkansas’ defense is any good, and this one has the makings of a shootout.

The pick: Oklahoma State wins, Arkansas covers

No. 3 Texas (-7) at No. 10 Michigan

It’s probably been a while since the Wolverines were touchdown underdogs in The Big House, but here we are.

The reason the line is so big has more to do with Michigan than it does Texas. The Wolverines were not impressive at all against Fresno State, struggling offensively and only putting up 23 offensive points (they had a pick-6). On the plus side, Fresno State only had 9 yards rushing.

But the Bulldogs had 232 yards passing. And what will Quinn Ewers do to a secondary like that? Probably feast, unfortunately. Michigan is kind of a mess right now, and they’re breaking in a lot of new players. If you play this game in November, it could be a different story. But it’s not being played in November.

The pick: Texas wins, covers

Iowa State (+2) at Iowa

I really want to take Iowa State here, largely because I had developed an irrational disdain for Iowa, but I think that would be a mistake. The Hawkeyes struggled to get going offensively last week, but ended up winning 40-0 over Illinois State. The Cyclones, on the other hand, never got going against North Dakota and won 21-3. But they gave up 295 total yards, including 174 on the ground, and could only muster 86 on their own.

And what’s Iowa’s game plan, whether by design or desperation? Run the ball, stop the run. Iowa State didn’t do the first and couldn’t do the second. That’s…a bad combination.

The pick: Iowa wins, covers

Colorado (+6.5) at Nebraska

Colorado came within 5 yards of losing to North Dakota State at home last weekend, and you’d think Deion Sanders and his crew had won the Super Bowl. So much hype. So little reason.

Nebraska, on the other hand, churned up 507 yards of offense as they blitzed UTEP 40-7. Dylan Raiola was efficient in his first game, and the Cornhuskers were able to run the football as well. So let’s look at what Colorado did defensively against NDSU: 449 yards allowed, 292 passing yards allowed and 46% in 3rd down conversions allowed.

Colorado did have 445 yards passing (59 rushing), while Nebraska gave up 140 and picked off a pair of passes. Shadeur Sanders will have to repeat last week’s performance for the Buffs to have a chance. I don’t think he will.

Matt Rhule does not like hot dogs. Colorado comes with an extra serving of mustard. That should go over really well in Memorial Stadium.

The pick: Nebraska wins, covers

South Carolina (+8.5) at Kentucky

Kentucky has a lot of guys out for this game. A lot. But it shouldn’t matter. South Carolina had to fight off an attempted game-winning final drive against Old Dominion to win 23-19. Offensively, the Gamecocks are terrible. They had 114 yards passing against ODU — Not ND, ODU — and gave up 4 sacks. They had 288 yards of total offense and gave up 305.

To Old Dominion.

And now they play their first conference game? In Lexington? I think you see where I’m going with this.

Oh, and Kentucky gave up 0 points in its opener against Southern Miss.

The pick: Kentucky wins, covers