Published Nov 1, 2024
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Mark Passwaters  •  AggieYell
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@mbpRivals

After a few unfortunate delays, our betting primer returns this week. Always remember this is for entertainment purposes only, and if you do bet, bet against me.

Ole Miss (-7) at Arkansas (over/under 53.5)

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I hate Arkansas. I mean, that’s not new, but I particularly hate this year’s version of it. Because it’s so ridiculously unpredictable. They can’t move the ball against A&M and lose, then beat Tennessee at home and you’re thinking, ok, these guys are a tough out in Fayetteville.

And LSU smokes them. So then they go to Starkville and you think, State is getting better. This could be the upset they’re looking for.

And Arkansas pummels them.

So what the hell are we to expect from these yo-yos?

Now, with greetings and a whiny coach cometh Ole Miss. A team that has two losses and is desperate to avoid a third in order stay in the CFP hunt. The Rebels aren’t the juggernaut Lane made them out to be and they have struggled offensively in conference (11th in scoring in conference games), but they’re a lot more consistent than Arkansas.

It’ll be the Ole Miss defense that makes the difference here. They can get enough pressure on Taylen Green to make him uncomfortable, and he’s not good in those situations (see the A&M game).


Prediction: Ole Miss wins, covers and the number goes over 53.5



Florida (+14.5) vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville; O/U 51.5)

Georgia is technically the home team, but who cares. It’s a legit neutral site game. The Gators are coming off their best win of the season, blowing out Kentucky, and the Dawgs had a bye week after demolishing… them.

Georgia’s defense is clicking, and they have the ability to make life hell for DJ Lagway. They were capable of confusing Quinn Ewers, who has a whole lot more experience under his belt than Lagway does, plus they had two weeks to get ready. This screams trouble for Florida, and we know that they don’t respond well to power running teams.

The pick: Georgia wins, covers and the number goes over 51.5

Ohio State (-3) at Penn State (O/U 46.5)

It’s the Big 10. It’s November. It’s going to be chilly and this is when the defenses take over.

Penn State has a problem in that QB Drew Allar is not 100%. He hurt his left leg last week and, while he’s supposed to start, being less than 100% against Ohio State is probably not where you want to be.

These are two of the top eight scoring defenses in the nation, which is another reason I’m expecting a slugfest. Will Howard grew up a Penn State fan and they didn’t even recruit him, so there’s some bad blood there. And a couple of deep balls that actually hit could be the difference in the game.

The pick: Ohio State wins, covers and the number goes under 46.5


Vanderbilt (+8) at Auburn (O/U 48.5)

Eight points is a big number for a team that has been pretty crappy this year. In fact, I don’t understand it at all, except Auburn is at home.

Auburn is 112th in time of possession in 127th in turnovers lost with 17. Guess who’s +5 in takeaways and has only committed five all year?

Yep, Vandy.

The Commodores are also the best in the conference in time of possession and third down conversion percentage. Defense travels, and Vanderbilt’s has been good.

Auburn continues to shoot itself in the foot, and until they prove otherwise, there’s no reason to pick them.

The pick: Vandy wins outright, the number goes under 48.5



UMass (+18.5) at Mississippi State (O/U 60.5)

Just kidding.

Kentucky (+17.5) at Tennessee (O/U 45.5)

Kentucky can’t do anything on offense. They can’t score on anyone. But Tennessee hasn’t put up more than 25 points in a conference game and have been pretty awful on offense overall for a month. They’re living on defense and turnovers. And that’s fine for this game, because they should be able to strangle Kentucky’s offense without much trouble. But how many points Tennessee can manage to score remains a question.The pick: Tennessee wins, Kentucky covers and the number goes under 45.5