Now that SEC play is well underway, here's a look at what each team has left on their schedule:
Texas A&M (4-1, 2-0 SEC)
Missouri will be a tough out, but playing at Kyle Field helps. But the Tigers struggled with Boston College and Vandy took them to double overtime, so they're not invincible.
Mississippi State is terrible. LSU will be a night game and their pass defense remains very bad (99th nationally). I'm not at all sold on South Carolina, New Mexico State is a Bottom 10 team and Auburn isn't very good at all. Texas is a different story.
A&M's destiny is under their own control. Mizzou, LSU and Texas look like the toughest outs and all are at home.
Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
Alabama's season is pretty much down to two games, right in a row: Tennessee in Knoxville and Missouri at home. LSU in Baton Rouge will be wild, but Alabama is definitely the superior team. Oklahoma in Norman and Auburn anytime aren't easy for the Tide, but they should be significant favorites in both. A CFP spot is not only possible, but at this point, it may be likely.
Arkansas (3-2, 1-1 SEC)
The schedule makers did absolutely zero favors for Arkansas. A lot of people who cover the Razorbacks said beating A&M was an absolute must, because the Aggies were the start of a death march. They play five teams currently ranked in the top 15, but four of the five are at least at home. Maybe Arkansas will jump up and bite one of these teams, because they do have a solid offense, but I only see two more wins for them at this point barring an upset. And that would mean curtains for Sam Pittman.
Auburn (2-3, 0-2 SEC)
I don't know if you fire a coach like Hugh Freeze after two seasons and with an excellent recruiting class assembled at this point, but the Tigers are in trouble. They're already under .500, lost two home games they should have won and now they go on the road for three straight and they're all tough.
Auburn's biggest problem is Auburn. They are dead last nationally in interceptions and turnovers overall, and they're next to last in turnover margin. And that was in the easy part of the schedule. They should beat Vanderbilt and ULM, but after that? It looks rough. And if they get blitzed at Georgia and Missouri, that may break their spirits.
Florida (2-2, 1-1 SEC)
The talk in Gainesville after A&M crushed Florida was, "Will Billy Napier see November?" It's not an unreasonable question. The Gators are just a 1-point favorite, at home, against a UCF team that Colorado just beat by 27. And that's the easiest opponent they have until the finale against FSU. They've got five top-15 opponents left, including two on the road and one at a neutral site. This team could legitimately finish 4-8 or worse.
Georgia (3-1, 1-1 SEC)
If you're a college football fan, you're loving the middle of the Georgia's schedule. If you're a Georgia fan, you're probably sick to your stomach, because there are some potential nail-biters in there. Going to Austin and Oxford will not be easy, and Tennessee won't be a walk in the park. If they get through those games unscathed -- and even if they lose one -- they're likely right in the CFP hunt.
Kentucky (3-2, 1-2 SEC)
Which Kentucky team is going to show up -- the one that South Carolina destroyed, or the one that went in to Oxford and stymied Ole Miss? Their defense is great -- 9th overall. Their offense is garbage -- 113th. They're probably the toughest team to figure out in the entire SEC. They can beat every team on their schedule and lose to all of them as well (except Murray State).
LSU (4-1, 1-0 SEC)
LSU remains one of the most confounding teams in college football. They're throwing all over the place and can't run. They're picking up a lot of sacks, and are still getting lit up by the passing game. So go figure.
After Ole Miss laid an egg last weekend, the Ole Miss game becomes a de facto elimination game for the CFP. If they get past the Rebels, the Aggies and Alabama are back-to-back (with a bye week in between). So they'll have to earn it. But the LSU team that squeaked past South Carolina with referee help has three more losses on the schedule. The one that plays up to its potential can run the table.
Mississippi State (1-4, 0-2 SEC)
Oh boy.
A terrible team has a brutal schedule awaiting it. Georgia will want to crush them for style points. The Aggies will either come in off a bye with a five-game winning streak or trying to keep their CFP hopes alive. Then you've got Tennessee, Missouri and Ole Miss to close. Even though they have Arkansas at home, the Hogs will likely be favored. Could this team go 2-10?
Missouri (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
The Tigers hold their destiny in their own hands, but they struggled with Boston College and Vanderbilt at home. Now they go on the road to A&M and have to go to Alabama later this month. Outside of that, this isn't an incredibly tough slate. They'll probably be favored in every other game and could end up 10-2 or better.
Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1 SEC)
The Sooners have to find some offense pronto, because they're about to be seriously tested. Texas at the Cotton Bowl will not be fun, Ole Miss in Oxford is no joy, and then you get Alabama between road trips to Mizzou and LSU. Outside of Maine, there are no cakewalks for a team that is 122nd in total offense.
Ole Miss (4-1, 0-1 SEC)
After picking on four cripples to start the season, Lane Kiffin said he didn't know anything about his team. Now, he does -- they can lose to a team with a pulse. They couldn't run against Kentucky and their secondary made Brock Vandagriff look good. They will certainly be underdogs to both LSU and Georgia, and a loss to one puts them in dire straits for the CFP. Lose both and you're out. They need to find some consistency in a hurry.
South Carolina (3-1, 1-1 SEC)
We'll learn a lot more about a team that should be 2-0 in SEC play starting now, as they enter the "oof" portion of their schedule -- Ole Miss, Alabama, Oklahoma and A&M in order, then Missouri after Vanderbilt. Get the cupcake out of the way and then it's Clemson. That is a very tough stretch, and one that will severely test Shane Beamer's team.
Tennessee (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
Circle Oct. 19 and Nov. 16 in red ink, because otherwise Tennessee has a cakewalk the rest of the way. They're positioned to seal the fates of two coaches in consecutive weeks with Arkansas and Florida coming to town, and only have two real road games left (I'm not counting Vandy. Let's be serious here). The road to the CFP is wide open for the Vols.
Texas (5-0, 1-0 SEC)
Texas has a clear path to the CFP before them. The Red River matchup with Oklahoma is unpredictable, but the big ones are clearly Georgia and A&M. Otherwise, it's a pretty easy path for them.
Vanderbilt (2-2, 0-1 SEC)
The Commodores are no cupcake this year, but the schedule makers also did them no favors. After losing in overtime at Missouri, they come off a bye and get Alabama. They will also host Texas and Tennesse and go on the road to LSU. They're going to be a lot more competitive than most people think, but it's still probably a 6-6 ceiling for them.
