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10 Things for Tuesday, sponsored by JFQ Lending

Should he stay or go? Ainias Smith's draft prospects are tough to gauge.
Should he stay or go? Ainias Smith's draft prospects are tough to gauge.

1. I don't understand the Moose Muhammad situation from either side. It's cold. Let the guy wear sleeves. But if you know the coach has a rule against them, why would you poke the bear? Nobody looks good here, and it's just one more embarrassment the program doesn't need at this point.

2. So I did some looking on the draft status of several Aggies, starting with Devon Achane. What I found irritated me greatly, being a huge fan of the kid as I am. Most scouting sites have him between the sixth and eighth-best back in the draft. I've said before this is a really good draft for running backs, but that still burns me. But this did even more: "A good mid-round value pick". First, I hate terms like that because it sounds like some draft nerd is acting like a human being is a sale item at Wal-Mart. Second, a guy who averages 5.4 yards a carry behind a terrible line and that's his worst season is not a "value pick". He's a quality pick.

But here's the thing that should interest you: with running backs so absurdly under-valued and people (foolishly) focusing on his size, right now he probably is a 4th or 5th round pick. I think I'd laugh at that, come back for an extra season, enjoy track and NIL and end up going higher in the draft next season. It's always a gamble and running backs only have so many carries in him, but that's my thought.

3. The market for Ainias Smith is hard to gauge. I've seen him ranked as high as the 10th-best wideout in the draft to 25th. Some analysts believe that his draft stock was seriously hurt by the injury, which I can't really argue. But you also can't dispute 19.8 yards a catch, which is what he was averaging before he got hurt. But, if he needs to prove himself yet again, it would not break my heart to see him come back. Hint, hint.

4. Nobody's noticing McKinnley Jackson yet. Looking around, nobody has the big man in the middle in their top 25 defensive tackles. Maybe that's because he's been a role player his first two seasons and he missed the first third of this year -- again, reasonable. But he's been a monster since coming back. If they'd like to keep ignoring him, that's perfectly fine.

5. Projections for Layden Robinson are all over the place. Some places have him as a top-10 guard still, which is where I had him before the year, but mostly down around eighth or ninth. Odds are that's a mid- to late-round pick. Some analysts don't have him in the top 25. His film this year just isn't that great, painfully, and a lot of that isn't on him (injuries and the mess that is the whole line). But it would be tough to fathom a team leader and a player as driven as Robinson thinking 2022 is an acceptable way to go out. It's possible, I guess, but just doesn't seem as likely as it was four months ago.

6. ....And the luck runs out when you get to Antonio Johnson. If you can make a strong case for Achane, Smith and Jackson coming back, you can't make one here. The only argument you can make is he missed a few games. Then he came back and dominated against Auburn, so there's no question about his health. And almost everyone has him as the top safety prospect and a first round pick. That wouldn't be bad PR, honestly.

7. So what could the defense look like next year? Something like this, maybe:

DE: Fadil Diggs

DT: McKinnley Jackson

DT: Walter Nolen

DE: Shemar Stewart OR Tunmise Adeleye

LB: Edgerrin Cooper

LB: Montrell Harris (if both Chris Russell and Andre White leave)

Nickel: Jarred Kerr

CB: Jaylon Jones

S: Jacoby Mathews OR Bryce Anderson

S: Jardin Gilbert

CB: Tyreek Chappell

If they can play disciplined football and, you know, tackle, this would be a pretty solid group.

8. And if we're really lucky on offense? Maybe this:

QB: Conner Weigman

RB: Devon Achane

TE: Donovan Green

WR: Evan Stewart

WR: Moose Muhammad

WR: Ainias Smith

LT: Trey Zuhn

LG: Aki Ogunbiyi

C: Bryce Foster

RG: Layden Robinson

RT: Deuce Fatheree

I feel more confident about the defensive projections than the offensive ones, but there would be a lot of familiar faces (or maybe some transfers, perhaps) if things go well.

9. Top 2024 QB target DJ Lagway has set a commitment date and it's Dec. 7. The Aggies are among the finalists, but they'll have to hustle and figure out what they're doing offensively to make sure it works for him. A&M has been, and is, in good shape for him but Florida is a concern.

10. Rivals 250 4-star DT Johnny Bowens is down to three teams, A&M, Texas and Oregon. He'll commit Nov. 24. I still like A&M's chances here, horrible season or not.

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