And we're back with this week's betting primer (entertainment value only, please) on an Aggie football-free weekend, which reduces the stress level. Unless you've got money riding, of course.
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (+16.5) in Dallas (Over/under 49.5)
This game really hinges on one player: true freshman QB Michael Hawkins of Oklahoma. The stats say that OU has the 118th passing offense, and I believe that. It also says Texas has the number 2 pass defense, and I don't believe that, because, as PAWWWWWL knows, they ain't played nobody who can throw a forward pass.
But can OU? Highly debatable. What the Sooners can do is play defense, and I think that will help them hang around for a while. But eventually, they'll be worn down by being on the field so much due to an utterly inept offense.
The pick: Texas wins, covers, and the number goes UNDER 49.5
South Carolina (+21.5) at No. 7 Alabama (O/U 50.5)
Alabama should be humiliated and pissed off after what happened last weekend in Nashville. Now they come home to play a South Carolina team that I've been telling you all year is a fraud, but some people still shake in their booties at the sign of them.
Look: the Gamecocks can't throw and, even though LaNorris Sellers is really mobile, they are LAST in the nation in sacks allowed. Alabama is probably not going to let another mobile quarterback kill them, but Diego Pavia can throw. Sellers can't.
This is the kind of game where Jalen Milroe goes off and puts up silly numbers, including with his feet. So you can see where I'm going with this.
The pick: Alabama wins, covers, but since Carolina can't score, take the under.
No. 9 Ole Miss (-3.5) at No. 13 LSU (O/U 62.5)
I think a lot of people are looking at this game and immediately thinking shootout, because that's a pretty reasonable assumption with these two teams. But that overlooks that Ole Miss has been really good on defense this year. They're third in scoring defense, giving up less than 8 points a game (granted, against largely trash, but still).
These two teams have a common opponent: South Carolina. LSU gave up 33 points to the Gamecocks; Ole Miss gave up 3. Same field, same quarterback.
I do think Jaxson Dart can pass on an LSU secondary that isn't good. How they can be 93rd in the nation against the pass after playing USC, Nicholls, South Carolina, UCLA and South Alabama should scare the pee-pee out of LSU fans.
Garrett Nussmeier will keep LSU in this thing for a while. But Dart could stack up huge numbers against the Tigers, night game at LSU or not.
The pick: Ole Miss wins, covers and the number goes UNDER 62.5
No. 18 Kansas State (-3.5) at Colorado (O/U 55.5)
This one's an interesting one because each team's strength goes up against the other team's weakness. K-State runs the ball really well (7th in the nation); Colorado struggles against the run. Colorado likes to throw it, and K-State is 100th in passing defense. So it could be K-State grinds it out on the ground and the Buffs come right back with a quick bomb. But Colorado here's the stat that may be decisive: K-State leads the Big 12 in sacks. Colorado is 128th in the nation in giving them up. That could be the difference in a shootout.
The pick: K-State wins, covers and the number goes OVER.
No. 2 Ohio State (-3) at No. 3 Oregon (O/U 53.5)
A huge game I have relatively little personal interest in watching. Just don't care about either team. BUT, having said that, we've got another matchup of contrasting styles. Ohio State is perfectly capable of throwing, but they may want to grind it out. Oregon wants to throw it.
But here's what you may not know: both of these defenses are really good. Ohio State is number 1 in scoring and total defense; Oregon is 10th in total defense. So, even with all the offensive firepower, this game looks like it could be a grind. Which is why I like Ohio State and their running game, because they've got two studs who can handle the load and wear the Ducks down.
The pick: Ohio State wins, covers and the number goes UNDER.
