AggieYell.com's look at the matchup between No. 16 Texas A&M (5-2, 3-1 SEC) and Mississippi State (4-3, 1-3 SEC) begins with a breakdown between the Mississippi State offense and the Aggie defense.
Mississippi State likely starters
QB: 7 Nick Fitzgerald (6-5 230 Sr.-3L; Pro Football Focus season score of 54.2)
RB: 8 Kylin Hill (5-11 215 So.-1L; PFF score of 81.5)
WR (X): 1 Stephen Guidry (6-4 190 Jr.-JC; PFF score of 55.5)
WR (H): 2 Deddrick Thomas (5-9 190 Jr.-2L; PFF score of 64.5)
WR (Z): 87 Osirus Mitchell (6-5 210 So.-1L; PFF score of 59.3)
TE: 81 Justin Johnson (6-3 245 Sr.-3L; PFF score of 58.3)
LT: 55 Greg Eiland (6-8 335 So.-1L; PFF score of 47.4)
LG: 73 Darryl Williams (6-2 310 Jr.-1L; PFF score of 75.1)
C: 74 Elgton Jenkins (6-4 310 Sr.-3L; PFF score of 77)
RG: 61 Deion Calhoun (6-3 320 Sr.-3L; PFF score of 72.5)
RT: 51 Stewart Reese (6-5 340 So.-1L; PFF score of 59.5)
Texas A&M likely starters
DE: 8 Kingsley Keke (6-4, 285, Sr-3L; PFF score of 72.7)
DT: 34 Daylon Mack (6-1, 320, Sr-3L; PFF score of 79.4)
DT: 52 Justin Madubuike (6-3, 300, So-1L; PFF score of 85.8)
DE: 46 Landis Durham (6-3, 255, Sr-3L; PFF score of 70.4)
SLB: 25 Tyrel Dodson (6-2, 242, Jr-2L; PFF score of 67)
MLB: 42 Otaro Alaka (6-3, 240, Sr-3L; PFF score of 71.5)
WLB: 1 Buddy Johnson (6-2, 225, So-1L; PFF score of 69.8)
Nickel: 26 Deshawn Capers-Smith (6, 200, Sr-3L; PFF score of 70)
CB: 21 Charles Oliver (6-2, 202, Jr-2L; PFF score of 63.8)
S: 14 Keldrick Carper (6-2, 198, So-1L; PFF score of 76.4) NOTE: regular starter Donovan Wilson (6-1, 207, Sr-3L; PFF score of 80.4) is suspended for the first half
S: 4 Derrick Tucker (6-1, 200, So-1L; PFF score of 51.8)
CB: 29 Debione Renfro (6-2, 193, So-1L; PFF score of 77.4)
Mississippi State statistical leaders
Rushing: Fitzgerald, 121 carries for 644 yards and 7 TD
Hill, 76 carries for 516 yards and 3 TD
Aeris Williams, 35 carries for 229 yards and 1 TD
Passing: Fitzgerald, 69-147, 768 yards, 4 TD, 7 INT
Keytaon Thompson, 15-34, 397 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT
Receiving: Mitchell, 14 catches for 251 yards and 2 TD
Guidry, 11 catches for 196 yards and 1 TD
Hill, 11 catches for 103 yards and 2 TD
A&M statistical leaders
Tackles: Alaka, 40
Wilson, 39
Dodson, Capers-Smith, Durham 29
Tackles for loss: Keke, 7
Durham, Alaka, 6.5
Madubuike 5.5
Sacks: Keke, Durham 5
Madubuike, 3
Mack, 2
Interceptions: Wilson, Oliver, Larry Pryor 1 each
Forced Fumbles: Madubuike, 2
Alaka, 1
Braden Mann, 1
Fumble recoveries: Dodson, 1
Mississippi State by the numbers
Scoring offense: 27 PPG, 81st
Rushing yards: 235 YPG, 16th
Passing yards: 171.3 YPG, 110th
Total yards: 406.3 YPG, 69th
First downs: 141, 90th
3rd down conversions: 41.7%, 46th
4th down conversions: 30%, 120th
Red zone percentage: 87%, 45th
Sacks allowed: 12, 43rd
Turnovers: 8, 26th
Average time of possession: 31:05, 48th
Texas A&M by the numbers
Scoring defense: 20.6 PPG, 29th
Rushing defense: 81.6 YPG, 4th
Passing defense: 241.7 YPG, 91st
Total defense: 323.3 YPG, 22nd
First downs allowed: 104, 7th
3rd down conversions defense: 22.8%, 2nd
4th down conversions defense: 50%, 51st
Red zone defense: 66.7%, 5th
Tackles for loss: 44, 56th
Sacks: 17, 49th
Turnovers forced: 4, 128th
Mississippi State's scheme
There's a lot of similarities between what Kentucky's offense looks like and what Mississippi State's looks like. Not just in how they run the offense, but in the results they're getting.
Like Kentucky, Mississippi State runs a spread style of offense with three wideouts, a tight end and a quarterback and running back in the shotgun. They'll use a lot of misdirection and motion to try to get the defenders guessing. And then, most of the time, they run.
Unlike Kentucky, which had Bennie Snell as option 1, Fitzgerald is the primary ballcarrier for Mississippi State. With Kylin Hill banged up but still expected to play, that probably isn't changing this weekend. The Bulldogs will run Fitzgerald between the tackles, either using a straight power run, a counter where Fitzgerald takes a drop step and goes forward or a draw from an empty set. When Hill gets the ball, they like to get him out on the edges to use his speed.
Mississippi State is desperate to hit a big play in the passing game, but they've been atrocious in that department since conference play began. Fitzgerald is hitting only 47% of his passes, and he's getting worse, not better -- he's hit 42% in his last three games. He's had huge games against the Aggies before, but he's clearly regressed. Their passing game right now consists of a lot of short passes, out in the flat to the backs or quick slants to the receivers over the middle. They were predictable enough that LSU was jumping routes from the start of last week's game.
There's nothing really shocking about what State wants to do. They want to use their big linemen to push you around and run the ball, then use playaction off of that if they can. But if their running game is slowed down, then they're in serious trouble.
Texas A&M's scheme
Against Kentucky and South Carolina, the scheme has largely been the same: we're going to try to stop the run by loading up the box and challenging you to throw. It worked very well against Kentucky, and would have worked better against South Carolina if A&M hadn't committed a ton of penalties on the Gamecocks' scoring drives (counterpoint: the Gamecocks also had a ton of drops).
If Mississippi State is going to come out with three wides, then Deshawn Capers-Smith will see a lot of action again. If not, then Buddy Johnson will be on the field to add another bigger body to hit Fitzgerald when he runs. The Aggies probably aren't going to spy Fitzgerald, but they'll have either Carper, Tucker or Wilson (in the second half) up in the box to shut down the run or to stop him when he scrambles.
A&M's gameplan for the run by now is pretty well established. Get Mack and Madubuike pushing the interior line backward and force the runners either to the edges and Keke and Durham or have Alaka clean up. Fitzgerald really likes to hit the A gap (gap between the guard and center), he'll frequently be coming right at them. If A&M can win that battle, they're in good shape.
The Aggie secondary hasn't been great this year, but they've only given up an average of 175 yards a game in the past three outings. They're probably going to play press man against Mississippi State, just like they did against Kentucky and at least some of the time against Kentucky. The Bulldogs have one completion over 50 yards for the season, so the deep ball has not been there. They're going to look to take the dink and dunk away and force Fitzgerald to do something he hasn't done at all this year and throw the ball accurately.
Since the start of conference play, Mississippi State has a total of three offensive touchdowns. One of those came when they recovered an Auburn fumble at the Tigers' 35. They have had real trouble sustaining drives and scoring points. A&M is going to try to take away their top weapon (the QB run) and force them to do things they're far less comfortable with.
Key matchups
DTs Daylon Mack and Justin Madubuike, LB Otaro Alaka vs. OL Darryl Williams, Elgton Jenkins and Deion Calhoun, QB Nick Fitzgerald
As mentioned above, Mississippi State likes to run Fitzgerald North-South. In the past they'd run him off tackle, but this year, it's been more right up the middle. That means he's getting in behind his big interior linemen, who can push opponents around. Mack and Madubuike are as good as they've faced to date and nobody's pushed them around. A&M needs to hold up at the point of attack and have Alaka come in and take out Fitzgerald when he has the chance. Missed tackles will be a real problem against such a big ballcarrier.
DEs Kingsley Keke and Landis Durham vs. OL Greg Eiland and Stewart Reese
The Mississippi State tackles are huge, but have been much less effective than than their brethren at guard and center. That includes the running game and the passing game. The Aggies aren't going to want to blitz Fitzgerald if they don't have to in passing situations, because they want to make him try to make tough throws. If they can get pressure with the front four, then they can do that. Durham and Keke will also be critical to slowing down Hill, who can really move if he gets outside of the tackle box and into space.
CB Debione Renfro vs. WR Osirus Mitchell
If MSU can get someone deep, Mitchell's the likely candidate. He's averaging better than 14 yards a catch and presents a matchup problem with his size. Renfro will probably draw the assignment of covering him and the two will go one-on-one much of the day.
